Pros and Cons

You can’t say I didn’t call it.

From CNN.com

Republican presidential hopeful Herman Cain told supporters Saturday that he is suspending his presidential campaign, which has become hobbled in recent weeks by allegations of sexual harassment and an Atlanta woman’s claim that they carried on a 13-year affair.

While he will still be able to raise and spend campaign funds because he did not officially drop out, Cain’s White House bid is effectively over.

Cain said he came to the decision after assessing the impact that the allegations were having on his wife, his family and his supporters.

[snip]He repeatedly called the allegations “false and untrue,” and added that “the (media) spin hurts.”

“I am not going to be silenced and I will not go away,” Cain said, announcing what he called his Plan B: A website, TheCainSolutions.com, through which he will continue to advocate for his platform.

His catchy “9-9-9” economic plan is not going anywhere, he said.

[snip]

He will endorse another of the Republican presidential hopefuls soon, he said.

[snip]Recently, Cain acknowledged that Ginger White’s allegations of an affair have led to a drop in campaign contributions, and a Des Moines Register poll showed his support among likely Republican Iowa caucus-goers has fallen to 8%, down from 23% in October. The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.9 points, the newspaper said.

Respondents said they were most concerned that Cain does not understand important issues, but said the allegations against him contribute to their concern, the newspaper said.

[snip]Cain’s announcement came a month before the Iowa caucuses, the first formal test of the primary season, scheduled for January 3.

New Hampshire Republican officials who supported Cain began to survey their options Saturday, with several state representatives saying their support could go to Gingrich or Ron Paul. Cain’s most prominent supporter in the state, former GOP state party chair Jack Kimball, said he would wait to learn who Cain would endorse before making his own decision.

1. I told you so.


2. He was right that his “9-9-9” plan is not going anywhere.  It never was.  It was DOA.  But it did serve the useful purpose of forcing the other candidates to discuss in particular how they would reform the tax code.


3. Of course, many or most of Cain’s supporters will switch to whomever he endorses—which should be interesting.  But from a political standpoint, I suspect Gingrich will benefit the most.  Ron Paul will get a few Cain supporters, but ideologically they are not sufficiently alike to generate much cross-over.  Actually, much of Cain’s appeal stemmed from the fact that he is a Beltway outsider.  Now, however, from a practical standpoint, his supporters will have to choose between two insiders (and yes, Romney is an insider).  In that respect, I think most Cain supporters will recognize Gingrich to be more radical, and thus more appealing, than Romney.  His remaining supporters obviously have little problem with the sexual politics involved, which means that Gingrich’s three marriages is unlikely to trouble them.  But if, as the poll suggests, they are concerned about Cain’s ability to understand and tackle important issues, then Gingrich should fit that bill perfectly, as he has demonstrated a superior understanding of the issues, beyond even Romney’s substantial grasp.

All of which is to say, the field is finally narrowing, and the next month or two should be interesting to say the least.

Oh, and for those of you confused about what it means to “suspend” a campaign (I was), my understanding is that a campaign cannot close up shop until the Federal Elections Committee tells it that it can close up shop.  That won’t happen until all bills are paid, and other matters are wrapped up.  As a result, the campaign can actually keep raising money and paying bills and generally operating business as usual, but the candidate will presumably quit campaigning, and is effectively out of the race.  Here’s the explanation from Rich Galen at Mullings.com:

Two well-respected Republican campaign attorneys – Michael Toner and Cleta Mitchell – both said over the weekend that the word “Suspend” has no legal meaning in U.S. Federal election law.

Toner told MSNBC that the term is a political one, not a legal one. Mitchell said Cain appears to have “used that term as a ‘soft landing’ exit.”

In fact, a campaign can’t “terminate” without the permission of the Federal Election Commission. Hillary Clinton’s campaign committee from 2008 is still active because the FEC will not allow a campaign to terminate until all its debts are paid, and Clinton’s have not been.