. . . well, two . . . well, really, three. But let’s face it, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul don’t count.
As anybody with a Twitter account, Facebook account, television, radio, or ears knows by now, Rick Santorum has suspended his presidential campaign. “Suspended” is shorthand for “seen the writing on the wall.” The reasons for the withdrawal are myriad, both subjective and objective. Subjectively, Mr. Santorum cited family considerations, particularly his parental responsibilities, and a specific implied consideration is his daughter, Bella’s, health (she is a special needs child and has just come down with pneumonia for the second time in just a few months). These are very real and legitimate considerations.
Objectively, Santorum’s campaign is pretty much broke (out of money), and his chances of achieving the nomination were increasingly slim. He would have had to nearly sweep the remaining states—not just win the states, but win nearly all of the delegates—to pass Mitt Romney’s delegate count and reach the 1,144 delegates necessary to secure the nomination. Again, he would have had to do this with essentially an empty war chest, while Romney’s is nearly limitless.
One of the paths to reaching that delegate count was if Newt Gingrich had dropped out of the race and thrown all of his support behind Santorum, which would have presumably increased Santorum’s delegate count from 272 to 412 (compared to Romney’s 656), and would have made him significantly more competitive in upcoming primaries. A Gingrich endorsement would have made a great deal of sense; both Gingrich and Santorum had branded themselves as the true conservatives and, unofficially, as the “not-Romney.” And truthfully, politically Gingrich and Santorum are a lot closer to each other than either one is to Romney.
However, recent indications were that Gingrich was beginning to throw his support behind Romney. On “Fox News Sunday,” Gingrich told Brit Hume that Romney is “far and away the most likely Republican nominee.” Romney subsequently told Mike Huckabee on his radio show that he wasn’t surprised at Gingrich’s admission, and added that he kept in regular contact with Gingrich, and had even met with Gingrich (with their wives). If Gingrich is being opportunist (and I believe he may be), then he, too, has seen the writing on the wall and is angling for a significant role in a Romney administration. Interestingly, despite the fact that he is apparently cozying up to Romney, Gingrich still insists that he is remaining in the race, with the stated intent of influencing the Republican Party and its platform.
Given these recent indications that there is little to no possibility of Gingrich dropping out and throwing his support behind him, Santorum may have realized that his path to the White House was slim to gone, and decided to spare the party and his family any more trauma and gracefully exit. And that he did—very gracefully. His campaign has been a keystone to this Republican primary, forcing Romney to clarify and defend his positions, especially with regards to his health care policy. He has forced the Republican Party to recognize the issues evangelicals, tea partiers and conservatives care about, and the influence of those constituencies—particularly the in the Southern states. And on a person level, Santorum has greatly enhanced his political standing, rising from a humiliating defeat in his run for the Senate to a serious presidential candidate—against overwhelming odds. He deserves applause, and probably a great big “thank you” from the Romney campaign, which is no doubt breathing a lot easier now.
But, if Romney is wise, he won’t be breathing too much easier. Just because Santorum is out doesn’t mean his supporters will automatically gravitate to Romney. The primary is essentially wrapped up, but the general election is not, and Romney will need those Santorum voters to win in a close election against Barack Obama (and anyone who thinks it’s not going to be a close election is smoking something green and leafy). Unless Romney can find a way to reassure those conservative/evangelical voters that he is not the wishy-washy moderate they think he is, they may just choose to stay at home in November. That could cost Romney up to half a dozen percentage points, which in a close race could be decisive for Obama.
Let’s hope the Romney campaign doesn’t follow the example of that one little Indian boy (politically speaking).
- One little Indian boy left all alone;
- He went out and hanged himself and then there were none.